Based on my self-analysis, race profile, achievable pace and a reverse split, I have created my own race band. Here is what it looks like. I need to have a pretty darned good race for me to achieve this result. We shall see…I still say that my over-under is at around 3:50. A lot can go wrong in a marathon. Of the 3 previous marathons, only one has been a near perfect race. I ran out of steam in Tucson (my first marathon), had a really good race in Phoenix (where I qualified for Boston) and once again ran out of steam on a cold, dreary day in Boston.
For the New York Marathon, the 23rd mile (Central Park uphill) worries me the most. I just hope I have enough steam left in me to finish strong. We’ll see!
Tomorrow night we fly out.